The Monthly Review: June

The recent decline in inflation suggests that the U.S. economic goal of a "soft landing" might be achievable, with the economy still growing and a cooling labor market that isn't increasing unemployment or decreasing consumer spending. However, it is premature to celebrate, as the landing could be turbulent due to geopolitical crises or excessive optimism regarding corporate earnings and expectations of rate cuts. Powell has been ambiguous about future rate cuts, and while both equity and bond markets show signs of stability, definitive confirmation depends on the PCE data. The recent rotation of stocks and the earnings season with high expectations could indicate a forthcoming market correction. Additionally, political uncertainties and summer seasonality suggest caution for investors.